Public sentiment is highly polarized regarding Iran's potential to close the Strait of Hormuz. While some commenters support Iran's right to assert control and defend itself, a significant portion expresses skepticism about Iran's military capabilities and concerns about the economic repercussions for both Iran and the global oil market. Many fear that such a move could escalate into a larger military conflict, particularly involving the U.S. and its allies, leading to a general atmosphere of anxiety and distrust toward political leaderships and geopolitical decisions.

Iran

United States

Israel

The possibility of Iran shutting down the Strait of Hormuz is a critical question with far-reaching implications for the global economy. Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes through this narrow waterway, and any disruption could send energy markets into chaos.

In the context of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, the risk of closure seems increasingly plausible. Israel's long-term goal appears to be regime change in Iran, and it is unlikely to accept any agreement that leaves Iran with the capacity to develop nuclear weapons. On the other hand, Iran, having seen what happens when agreements are undermined or abandoned, may now believe that developing nuclear weapons is essential to ensure regime survival. This dynamic makes de-escalation extremely difficult.

If Israel finds it difficult to directly eliminate the Iranian regime, it may resort to crippling Iran economically by targeting its oil infrastructure. If these strikes significantly reduce Iran’s ability to export oil, Tehran may reason that closing the Strait of Hormuz won’t cost them much more—and it could force international actors to pressure Israel to halt its campaign. Alternatively, if Iran senses its regime is on the brink of collapse, it may attempt to shut the strait as a last-ditch effort to draw global attention and intervention.

However, there are strong counterarguments. Iran depends on the Strait of Hormuz for its own vital imports, including food and refined petroleum products. Shutting it down would further damage its already fragile economy. Iran also has to consider China—a major Iranian trading partner and oil buyer—who would strongly oppose any disruption to global energy flows. Furthermore, closing the strait would almost certainly invite military retaliation from the United States, which has long viewed the free flow of Gulf oil as a vital strategic interest.

So, will Iran actually shut down the Strait of Hormuz? While it may seem like a desperate but logical option in a worst-case scenario, the strategic costs are enormous. That said, if the stakes for the Iranian regime become existential, desperation may outweigh caution.

Nerdslayer2

Given the current state of affairs for Iran, any projection of power is going to be quite difficult for them to achieve.  They can threaten to close the Straight all they want but realistically that’s not going to be possible.  Now they can make things difficult for those transiting the Straight by mining it and harassing vessels but at this point closing it entirely is out of the question.

MtFuzzmore

Maybe briefly. Their navy can’t stand up to the IDF, and certainly not a US carrier strike group.

Last time they tangled with the US Navy things did not go well for them.

jrgkgb

What would this accomplish aside from giving the US a written invitation to join Israel in going apeshit on Iran?

The_Demolition_Man

When they could previously bring in their proxies AND close the Strait, that was a fairly considerable multifaceted threat. But their proxies have been nullified, and a sizable portion of their missile launchers, anti air defences and other strategic military hardware has been destroyed, and is being steadily whittled away by Israel's bombing campaign. 

It really doesn't stand out as the threat it used to because they are heavily weakened, and countering the closure doesn't seem particularly hard. Israel has convincingly dominated them so far. A coalition of The US, NATO and Gulf allies it would appear would be more than capable of dealing with the attempted Iranian closure of the Strait.  

It wouldn't seem like a rational move, drawing in more powerful enemies, when they are struggling to deal with the one they're currently fighting. But then it's not out of the realm of possibilities, because it could be said that Iran is headed by people whose motivations are not entirely rational and that ideology plays an important role.

Pine_Marten_

They can't defend their airspace, they definitely can't shut down the straight if Hormuz.

rcsfit

If Iran did that it would be a wonderful gift to Israel. It would unite the gulf states who are already not big fans of Iran with Israel as their interests will align, it will force America's hand in getting involved, and likely remove all international pressure from Israel.

Ecsta

If they do it won’t be for long. There are many nations out there who will work together to clear it rapidly.

John_Tacos

I got a feeling if they try to shut down the strait they'll incur the wrath of both a US and a UK Carrier Strike Group that's parked in the Red Sea.

kers_equipped_prius

Iran: *Tries to close the Strait of Hormuz*

Fat Electrician: "I guess they didn't learn the first time."

WoolaTheCalot

My two cents is US won’t join the war because Iran has the potential to shut down the straight and seriously disrupt the US economy. Iran won’t attack the US or shut down the straight because they don’t want the US in the war which would definitely lead to regime change.

Melodicmarc

Brotha they can't even close the airspace in Tehran.....

Halfie951

Won't shutting down hormuz sort of hurt anyone except Israel?

What would be the logic for Iran to do this. 

They need friendly neighbours, not pushing everyone into Israelis camp

Dietmeister

Will China or even India let that happen?

Fast_Astronomer814

Honestly they seem extremely weak at the moment. They are practically begging for a cease fire.

Pleiadez

i think for iran things are clear,

  
1. get public support back after humiliation 

2. get back to normal, so to avoid war with us , or prolonged war with isreal



but the objectives of israel are unclear, it seems they want to take down iran's leadership and supreme leader no matter what

Alternative-Camp-635

Have they ever successfully shut it down? I remember sailing through (USN) essentially as a big F U to Iran circa 2013 when they had allegedly mined the straits

JustAnIgnoramous

Can they shut down the straight of Hormuz? I mean they don’t even control the sky above their own capital at the moment

Pruzter

Looks like someone is targeting oil tankers already


https://x.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1934795105405423825?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Lindsiria

They are going be very picky about what they do and how they do it!

Ok_Photo_865

There are two American carrier strike groups on the way. It’s not happening

Foriegn_Picachu

Can Iran do it? Yes. Will it last? No. It'd almost guarantee a US intervention, and could get the Gulf States involved as well.

Known_Week_158

Iran's only hope of existing as we know it in a year's time is to keep this war from escalating beyond destruction of their nuclear facilities. Closing the strait would essentially be a declaration of war against everyone who relies on it, which includes both the US and China. Iran doesn't want that smoke. If they think Israeli air supremacy is brutal, they should try fighting against the US and Chinese navies.

IrreverentCrawfish

Has Karg Island been hit yet? I know 90% of Iran's energy goes to China, so I wonder if that's what's sparing that depot.

Live_Location_6534

Here’s some good insight on how to hedge against the inevitable inflation we’re about to be hit with.

https://youtu.be/ZlAbwmPGZSo

cannavisions

Israel controls most of the middle east arabs.

They will not be happy if they cant sell their oil.

Motor-Adagio3781

If Israel keeps hitting their oil infrastructure I think it's likely they'll attempt to close it, assuming they have any mine layers left.

If they stop hitting the oil infrastructure, Iran would likely keep it open as they can keep shipping oil out. China buys most of their oil and they just made a massive munitions purchase from them. They have incentive to keep that trade route open.

It would also likely guarantee US involvement, something they don't want.

cathbadh

They do not seem competent enough to shut down a country road. Just another paper tiger…

Shadowblade83

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Oil will go to $100 no doubt, providing a reason for American drillers to drill baby drill.  Currently the supply was enough to meet demand.

perplexedparallax

Trump thinks this is all a TV show and the only consequences are the ones he rambles about on his social media site

Dragon_wryter

You forget, he doesn't give a shit. And his cult will blame it on Iran. "if they'd only just surrender" or "why did Biden do this"

Brentan1984

Trump couldn't name all 50 states on a map let alone know where the Strait of Hormuz is

gosluggogo

The answer 100% of the time to the question “does Trump know X” is always no. He’s a moron.

MeaningNo860

He's just happy it's the Strait of Hormuz and not the Gay of Hormuz

Defiant-Date-7806

No-Celebration3097

He just did what Bibi paid him to do, fuck Israel

Horror-Layer-8178

He. Does. Not. Care. Prices are things that affect poor people, his chosen people won't even notice if gas prices tripled. And his MAGAts will still suck from his teat and crow about owning the libs some more

Ze-dominant-demon

Maybe he can rename it to the Strait of America?

commking

Anybody want to share their memories of the 1970s oil crisis?

Sitting in long long lines just to get gas?

MNConcerto

Yep.  Hope ya'll gassed up today.  We're in for another 20 year ride on oil wars.  This move by tRump magat will incite targeted retaliation by iran on not only israel, but neighboring middle east countries and oil.

transfixedtruth

Aren’t they sending the USS Nimitz there?

Kenyon_118

MadMarsian_

He’ll just keep lying and saying gas is $1.95 a gallon

Individual_Land_2200

Dude doesn’t read his security briefings, so why would he have listened to or understood someone telling him the consequences of his actions?

C4dfael

sup9817

100% certain he has called it the Strait of Hormel

jaygeezythreezy

The only strait he knows is how straight his belt is with that  big belly.

Disastrous_Mango_953

Non-zero chance felon could not point to iran on a map of iran

crit_boy

I would bet anything that given an unlabeled map of the world and 5 guesses Trump couldn’t find Iran.

crypticaldevelopment

romuloskagen

Don’t be naive. They won’t. USA would vaporize their navy in an afternoon and they know it.

SuperDukey420

Are people actually  worried  about this?

The region and most of the world would unite to eliminate  Iran.

Iran response  
Step 1   fire a few missiles at US bases with no or minimal damage 

Step 2 fund terrorist  organizations which is what they have been doing already for a very long time 

Step 3 kill thousands of their own people for protesting not having internet and loss of other infrastructure

Live-Train1341

This leads to job cuts, higher inflation and a blow to an already failing global economy which is already in the shambles after the covid crisis, tariff war against the world, Russia Ukraine war, sudan civil war etc and now this.

cnut-baldwiniv

RebelMeedia

maxgrody

For them is good, they got lots of oil and the prices will go skyscraper high.

zaplayer20

The blockages would be removed within the week and their military poses no threat in the mountains. I think nations around the world would be ecstatic if the Iranian military went into full defense mode and retreated into the mountains. It would work in their favor.

DatDudeDrew

The US navy gets a vote and obliterates the Iranians and escorts shipping through the strait of Hormuz

thedogridingmonkey

Iran blocks the Strait with…what exactly? They’ll close the strait for a few hours and then missiles launched from boats their radar can’t even see will open it back up.

They have a navy of corvettes, frigates, and a few Soviet Kilo subs from the 1970’s. If it was them vs. a fleet of fishing boats from New Bedford, MA with fisherman armed with AR-15’s, I’d give the fishermen good odds.

kombu_raisin

The US demolishes the Iranian Navy from afar, along with smashing their ports so they have no place left to launch anything from, then occupies Iran's Persian Gulf coastal areas, and separately occupied Tehran and the Caspian Sea coastal areas. These have most of the non-mountainous terrain and are the most useful areas for modern society. Tehran will be the capital of North Persia, a shipping hub for Central Asia to get to Europe. The Gulf area will become a petrostate, South Persia. The rest will be Iran under the control of a bunch of Islamic fundamentalist guerillas living off of caches and bunkers in the mountains, with maybe a Kurdish group breaking off from that. The remaining Iran will have little in the way of an industrial base or agriculture, but with decades of stockpiled weapons and supplies in the mountains, and with no ability to build new stuff of their own, they will be considered a local threat, not worth anyone trying to occupy the place, basically turning into a second Afghanistan.

realnrh

Seeing as that 50% of China's oil passes through the straight....... China obliterates both Iranian and Houthi forces in the region. Rest of the world hails China as a hero.

Crusher10833

I think they already have, or at least the government has approved it.

1l536

This is the more colorful description of the last time Iran tried that.

https://youtu.be/d5v6hlRyeHE?si=3Vn06Czw3scTOkRQ

As to a guerilla campaign... how?

At the local Iranians don't support it, and right now the regime has a popularity rating below that of either Trump or the Democratic party within the US, then there is no guerilla campaign.

It's not like the US is putting boots on the ground, and I sincerely doubt the Israelis are either. The Israelis literally can't, unless the US provides them the transport. At most, a few commando raids here and there, but there's no way either the US or Israel or occupying Iran. 

Mostly, I think it's obvious that Israel and the United States are lopping off Iranian regime strong points and hoping that weakens the regime enough to inspire the Iranian people to rise up in revolt. I am suspicious of the Pahlavis (sp?) coming back, but the Israeli naming of the operation makes it obvious that's what they're shooting for.

CombatRedRover

Iran's parliament is considering closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route.

Iran and the Strait of Hormuz Tension

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Public Sentiment Summary

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